Farms, Fuels, and Fighter Jets—Alternative Futures for the Region of Yuma, Arizona~2030
Land Use Scenarios: Environmental Consequences of Development
Gaia's Revenge: Climate Change and Humanity's Loss
Alternative Futures for Changing Landscapes: The Upper San Pedro River Basin, Arizona and Sonora
Papers by Allan Shearer
Four Scenarios and Alternative Futures of Regional Change
Integrative studies in water management and land development, Jan 14, 2009
The Uncertainties of Regional Development and Their Possible Effects on Natural Resources Management
CRC Press eBooks, Jan 14, 2009
4th Esri Geodesign Summit January 29-30, 2014, Esri Headquarters. Redlands, California
Landscape Journal, 2014
Scenario-Based Studies for Landscape Planning
CRC Press eBooks, Jan 14, 2009
Land Use Scenarios
Integrative Studies in Water Management & Land Deve, 2009
The book describes a scenario approach to landscape planning using a large case study in the area... more The book describes a scenario approach to landscape planning using a large case study in the area between Orange County and San Diego, California, preserved partially by the presence of major military bases. The book is targeted at researchers, landscape and county planners, environmental consultants, NGOs and State Agencies, and geographers at all academic and student levels. The book presents a real scenario analysis in full detail from conceptualization, through preparatory data collation, development of scenarios and alternative futures, impacts in terms of hydrology, air quality and biology, and a fi nal synthesis. In this respect it differs from most other books on the market, which are either a compilation of many case studies in individual chapters, or a textbook style treatise on everything to do with scenario analysis (e.g., Alcamo, 2008). Bergh et al. (2004) produced a detailed volume on scenario analysis, but the case study topic of wetlands was very different. The authors share the chapter writing according to expertise. The fi rst chapter gives some background to scenario analysis and provides a conceptual approach to this case study, classifi ed according to the schema presented by Steinitz (1990). The second chapter describes the study region and the potential issues arising from regional development. The third chapter examines past scenario-based studies of military installations and their regions, and Chapter Four goes on to provide the broad regional context for the military installations. The fi fth chapter describes the combined land use/land cover characterization for the region that is used as the base for the scenarios. In Chapters 6 and 7, the authors outline the scenario construction process based on the method of Schwartz (1991), and then describe the four scenarios and present the alternative futures in the form of a “retrospective narrative” of all the drivers, responses, and behaviors that occurred. The next three chapters examine in turn the hydrological, air quality and biological consequences associated with the alternative futures. The results of these analyses are presented as a comprehensive series of gray-scale maps, a subset of which are published in a 16 leaf color section. The text states that color versions of the maps are available at an online website. However, when checked, the website was empty except for a statement that it would be the “Future Home” for these maps. More than 200 pages of the book are devoted to a detailed treatment of the biological consequences of the alternative futures represented in analysis of vegetation, ecological pattern, species richness and the impact on habitats for 13 individual species which have endangered or threatened status, indicator value, habitat insensitivity, rarity or a combination of these. The book is closed out by a relatively short discussion and conclusions chapter, wherein comparisons are made between scenarios for different housing patterns and habitat impacts
Describing the evolution of possible futures in the narrative form is widely practised. However, ... more Describing the evolution of possible futures in the narrative form is widely practised. However, while stories are intuitively recognized, the ability to compose a comprehensible story is often difficult. Ambiguities or inconsistencies within a scenario-as-story are not simply aesthetic faults, but are failings which can weaken the use of the technique in a learning or decision-making process. This paper provides a working understanding of narrative as a particular kind of knowledge and proposes an adaptation of Kenneth Burke's Dramatic Pentad as a way to explicitly capture this kind of knowledge within a scenario construction process.
This investigation was conducted as part of the Landscape Architecture Foundation's 2015 Case Stu... more This investigation was conducted as part of the Landscape Architecture Foundation's 2015 Case Study Investigation (CSI) program. CSI matches faculty-student research teams with design practitioners to document the benefits of exemplary highperforming landscape projects. Teams develop methods to quantify environmental, economic and social benefits and produce Case Study Briefs for LAF's Landscape Performance Series.
This Methods Document accompanies a Landscape Performance Series Case Study Brief. It was produce... more This Methods Document accompanies a Landscape Performance Series Case Study Brief. It was produced through the 2015 Landscape Architecture Foundation's Case Study Investigation (CSI) program, a unique research collaboration that matches LAF-funded faculty-student research teams with leading practitioners to document the benefits of exemplary high-performing landscape projects.
This Methods Document accompanies a Landscape Performance Series Case Study Brief. It was produce... more This Methods Document accompanies a Landscape Performance Series Case Study Brief. It was produced through the 2015 Landscape Architecture Foundation's Case Study Investigation (CSI) program, a unique research collaboration that matches LAF-funded faculty-student research teams with leading practitioners to document the benefits of exemplary high-performing landscape projects.
In February 2004, the Department of Defense released 'An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its I... more In February 2004, the Department of Defense released 'An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security.' Written by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall of consulting firm Global Business Network, the study outlined a possible future with climatic conditions similar to those 8200 years ago and speculated on implications related to the subsequent availability of food, water, and energy. As a result of media coverage about the report, which notably included misconceptions about the study's intents, the document may have become too politically controversial for defense planners to engage at the present time and it has apparently not been widely distributed within the administration's national security personnel. Regardless of the document's status within the Pentagon, it is of interest to many who are actively involved in discussions about the future. Broadly, as with any scenario-based undertaking, there are questions about how the vision of the future has been crafted and, subsequently, how it may best be used to inform a decision-making process. More narrowly, this particular scenario is also significant for ongoing debates about the role of environmental factors in matters of national security. This paper distinguishes between natural events and human actions to consider some strengths and weaknesses of Schwartz and Randall's text. It also makes recommendations to improve future efforts to understand the relationships between climate change and national security.
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Books by Allan Shearer
Papers by Allan Shearer